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Spectroscopic measurements at top of atmosphere are uniquely capable ofattributing changes in Earth's outgoing infrared radiation field to specificgreenhouse gasses. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) placed in orbit in2002 has spectroscopically resolved a portion of Earth's outgoing longwaveradiation for over 17 years. Concurrently, atmospheric CO$_2$ rose from 373 to410 ppm, or 28% of the total increase over pre-industrial levels. The CoupledModel Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) multi-model ensemble averagepredicts 0.477 Wm$^{-2}$ clear-sky longwave effective radiative forcing fromthis increase. Global measurements under nighttime, clear-sky conditions reveal0.360$\pm$0.026 Wm$^{-2}$ of CO$_2$-induced longwave radiative forcing, or75$\pm$5% of model predictions.

Radiative forcing by CO$_2$ observed at top of atmosphere from 2002-2019