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Many countries faced challenges in their health workforce supply likeimpending retirement waves, negative population growth, or a suboptimaldistribution of resources across medical sectors even before the pandemicstruck. Current quantitative models are often of limited usability as theyeither require extensive individual-level data to be properly calibrated or (inthe absence of such data) become too simplistic to capture key demographicchanges or disruptive epidemiological shocks like the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. Wepropose a novel population-dynamical and stock-flow-consistent approach tohealth workforce supply forecasting that is complex enough to addressdynamically changing behaviors while requiring only publicly availabletimeseries data for complete calibration. We demonstrate the usefulness of thismodel by applying it to 21 European countries to forecast the supply ofgeneralist and specialist physicians until 2040, as well as how Covid-relatedmortality and increased healthcare utilization might impact this supply.Compared to staffing levels required to keep the physician density constant at2019 levels, we find that in many countries there is indeed a significant trendtoward decreasing density for generalist physicians at the expense ofincreasing densities for specialists. The trends for specialists areexacerbated in many Southern and Eastern European countries by expectations ofnegative population growth. Compared to the expected demographic changes in thepopulation and the health workforce, we expect a limited impact of Covid onthese trends even under conservative modelling assumptions. It is of the utmostimportance to devise tools for decision makers to influence the allocation andsupply of physicians across fields and sectors to combat these imbalances.

A parameter-free population-dynamical approach to health workforce supply forecasting of EU countries