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Challenge Theory (CT), a new approach to decision under risk departssignificantly from expected utility, and is based on firmly psychological,rather than economic, assumptions. The paper demonstrates that a purelycognitive-psychological paradigm for decision under risk can yield excellentpredictions, comparable to those attained by more complex economic orpsychological models that remain attached to conventional economic constructsand assumptions. The study presents a new model for predicting the popularityof choices made in binary risk problems. A CT-based regression model is testedon data gathered from 126 respondents who indicated their preferences withrespect to 44 choice problems. Results support CT's central hypothesis,strongly associating between the Challenge Index (CI) attributable to everybinary risk problem, and the observed popularity of the bold prospect in thatproblem (with r=-0.92 and r=-0.93 for gains and for losses, respectively). Thenovelty of the CT perspective as a new paradigm is illuminated by its simple,single-index (CI) representation of psychological effects proposed by ProspectTheory for describing choice behavior (certainty effect, reflection effect,overweighting small probabilities and loss aversion).

Risk as Challenge: A Dual System Stochastic Model for Binary Choice Behavior