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Storm surges cause coastal inundations due to the setup of the water surfaceresulting from atmospheric pressure, surface winds and breaking waves. Thelatter is particularly difficult to be accounted for. For instance, it wasobserved that during Typhoon Haiyan (2013, Philippines), a stretch of coralreef near the coast, which was expected to protect the coastal communities,actually amplified the waves. The propagation and breaking process of suchlarge nearshore waves can be successfully captured by a phase-resolving wavemodel. Building defences requires estimating not only the maximum storm surgeheight, but also maxima of breaking wave height and run-up on land, underconsideration of a variety of storm characteristics. However, the computationalcomplexity of the simulator makes optimization tasks impractical. To find themaximum breaking wave (bore) height and the maximum run-up, we employoptim-MICE, a new surrogate-based optimization scheme based on Gaussian Processemulation and information theory. In two idealised settings, we efficientlyidentify the conditions that create the largest storm waves at the coast usinga minimal number of simulations. This is the first surrogate-based optimizationof storm waves. It opens the door to previously inconceivable coastal riskassessments.

Computationally efficient surrogate-based optimization of coastal storm waves heights and run-ups