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We recast the synthetic controls for evaluating policies as a counterfactualprediction problem and replace its linear regression with a nonparametric modelinspired by machine learning. The proposed method enables us to achieveaccurate counterfactual predictions and we provide theoretical guarantees. Weapply our method to a highly debated policy: the relocation of the US embassyto Jerusalem. In Israel and Palestine, we find that the average number ofweekly conflicts has increased by roughly 103\% over 48 weeks since therelocation was announced on December 6, 2017. By using conformal inference andplacebo tests, we justify our model and find the increase to be statisticallysignificant.

Tree-based Synthetic Control Methods: Consequences of moving the US Embassy