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This paper presents a calibration method for the speed-flow model of the HCM2016 for freeways and multilane highways allied to temporal analysis of trafficstream. The proposed method was developed using a sample of more than onemillion observations collected by 23 traffic sensors on four highways in thestate of S{\~a}o Paulo. The method is structured on Bayesian inference andprovided for each model parameters a probability distribution function. Thefree-flow speed and capacity presented a probability density function thatapproximates a Normal distribution. The segment in which the speed of trafficstream remain constant with the increase of the traffic flow is lower thandescribed in HCM 2016, being in some cases close to zero. Along with theproposed calibration method an analysis of temporal variation is performedwhich shows a significant variation in traffic behavior for different periods.The free-flow speed, capacity and breakpoint distributions obtained throughmonthly and annual calibration were considered equal by means ofKolmogorov-Smirnov test, different for the model calibration coefficient.

A calibration method structured on Bayesian Inference of the HCM  speed-flow relationship for freeways and multilane highways and a temporal  analysis of traffic behavior