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To establish an updated understanding of the U.S. textile and apparel (TAP)industrys competitive position within the global textile environment, tradedata from UN-COMTRADE (1996-2016) was used to calculate the Normalized RevealedComparative Advantage (NRCA) index for 169 TAP categories at the four-digitHarmonized Schedule (HS) code level. Univariate time series usingAutoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models forecast short-termfuture performance of Revealed categories with export advantage. Accompanyingoutlier analysis examined permanent level shifts that might convey importantinformation about policy changes, influential drivers and random events.

Forecasting U.S. Textile Comparative Advantage Using Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models and Time Series Outlier Analysis