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Considering a broad family of technologies where a measure of performance(MoP) is difficult or impossible to formulate, we seek an alternative measurethat exhibits a regular pattern of evolution over time, similar to how a MoPmay follow a Moore's law. In an empirical case study, we explore an approach toidentifying such a composite measure called a Figure of Regularity (FoR). Weuse the proposed approach to identify a novel FoR for diverse classes of smallarms - bows, crossbows, harquebuses, muskets, rifles, repeaters, and assaultrifles - and show that this FoR agrees well with the empirical data. Weidentify a previously unreported regular trend in the FoR of an exceptionallylong duration - from approximately 1200 CE to the present - and discuss howresearch managers can analyze long-term trends in conjunction with a portfolioof research directions.

Discovering a Regularity: the Case of An 800-year Law of Advances in Small-Arms Technologies