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This white paper addresses key challenges for the design of next-decadeCosmic Microwave Background (CMB) experiments, and for assessing theircapability to extract cosmological information from CMB polarization. We focushere on the challenges posed by foreground emission, CMB lensing, andinstrumental systematics to detect the signal that arises from gravitationalwaves sourced by inflation and parameterized by $r$, at the level of $r \sim10^{-3}$ or lower, as proposed for future observational efforts. We argue thatmore accurate and robust analysis and simulation tools are required for theseexperiments to realize their promise. We are optimistic that the capability tosimulate the joint impact of foregrounds, CMB lensing, and systematics can bedeveloped to the level necessary to support the design of a space mission at $r\sim 10^{-4}$ in a few years. We make the case here for supporting such work.Although ground-based efforts present additional challenges (e.g., atmosphere,ground pickup), which are not addressed here, they would also benefit fromthese improved simulation capabilities.

Astro2020 APC White Paper: The need for better tools to design future CMB experiments