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Surveys for transient and variable phenomena can be confounded by thepresence of extrinsic variability such as refractive interstellar scintillation(RISS). We have developed an all-sky model for RISS which can predictvariability on a variety of timescales, survey locations, and observingfrequencies. The model makes use of Halpha intensity maps to probe the emissionmeasure along the line of sight, convert this to a scattering measure, andfinally a scintillation strength. The model uses previously developed and longunderstood physics along with (indirect) measurements of the electron contentand distribution within the Milky Way. We develop a set of expectations thatare useful in the planning of future surveys for transient and radiovariability, and demonstrate that the 1-GHz sky is a poor predictor of thevariable nature of the $100$-MHz sky. Interestingly, the correlation betweenthe incidence of variability and Galactic latitude which has been seen at 1GHz,is reversed at 100MHz. We compare the predictions of our model to alow-frequency radio survey that was conducted with the Murchison WidefieldArray, and find good qualitative agreement. We discuss the implications,current limitations, and future development of the model. The model has beenimplemented in a Python code and is available on GitHub/Zenodo.

Refractive Interstellar Scintillation of Extra-galactic Radio Sources I: Expectations