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Background: Open source requires participation of volunteer and commercialdevelopers (users) in order to deliver functional high-quality components.Developers both contribute effort in the form of patches and demand effort fromthe component maintainers to resolve issues reported against it. Aim: Identifyand characterize patterns of effort contribution and demand throughout the opensource supply chain and investigate if and how these patterns vary withdeveloper activity; identify different groups of developers; and predictdevelopers' company affiliation based on their participation patterns. Method:1,376,946 issues and pull-requests created for 4433 NPM packages with over10,000 monthly downloads and full (public) commit activity data of the 272,142issue creators is obtained and analyzed and dependencies on NPM packages areidentified. Fuzzy c-means clustering algorithm is used to find the groups amongthe users based on their effort contribution and demand patterns, and RandomForest is used as the predictive modeling technique to identify their companyaffiliations. Result: Users contribute and demand effort primarily frompackages that they depend on directly with only a tiny fraction ofcontributions and demand going to transitive dependencies. A significantportion of demand goes into packages outside the users' respective supplychains (constructed based on publicly visible version control data). Three andtwo different groups of users are observed based on the effort demand andeffort contribution patterns respectively. The Random Forest model used foridentifying the company affiliation of the users gives a AUC-ROC value of 0.68.Conclusion: Our results give new insights into effort demand and supply atdifferent parts of the supply chain of the NPM ecosystem and its users andsuggests the need to increase visibility further upstream.

Patterns of Effort Contribution and Demand and User Classification based on Participation Patterns in NPM Ecosystem