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Tropical cyclones remain a major threat to the lives, property and economy ofcommunities around the South West Indian ocean (SWIO), notably Southern Africaand Madagascar. This study uses the weather research forecast (WRF) model toperform a series of simulations for tropical cyclone Enawo with the aim ofinvestigating the effect of an increase or decrease (by 2$^{\circ}C$) in seasurface temperature (SST) on the intensity of the tropical cyclone (usingwindspeed, precipitation and pressure as measures of cyclone intensity). Theexperiment uses the data from European Centre for Medium-Range WeatherForecasts (ECMWF) ERA5 re-analysis dataset to validate the results of the WRFmodel which was ran using boundary conditions data from climate forecast systemreanalysis (CFSR).  The results indicate that the WRF model performs reasonably well insimulating the track and windspeed of the tropical cyclone, when compared toobservational data. In simulating the tropical cyclone, the WRF model showsthat an increase in the SST by 2$^{\circ}C$ generally increases the intensityof the tropical cyclone formed. This is evident in the increasing maximumprecipitation rate as well as windspeed, and decreasing minimum pressure. Anincrease in SST also causes the emergence of a second low pressure system. Onthe other hand, a decrease in the SST by 2$^{\circ}C$ leads to a minute effectin the intensity but generally acts to decrease it. This results in a smoothertrack path for the tropical cyclone, a decrease in the maximum precipitationrate and windspeed, and an increase in the surface pressure.  The results of this study have shown that increasing the global temperatureby around 2$^{\circ}C$ - violation of the Paris Accord - would lead to moreviolent and unpredictable tropical cyclones within the SWIO, and hence moredestruction and loss of lives.

Simulating the influence of sea-surface-temperature (SST) on tropical  cyclones over South-West Indian ocean, using the UEMS-WRF regional climate  model