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In an earthquake event, the combination of a strong mainshock and damagingaftershocks is often the cause of severe structural damages and/or high deathtolls. The objective of this paper is to provide estimation for the probabilityof such extreme events where the mainshock and the largest aftershocks exceedcertain thresholds. Two approaches are illustrated and compared -- a parametricapproach based on previously observed stochastic laws in earthquake data, and anon-parametric approach based on bivariate extreme value theory. We analyze theearthquake data from the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ) in Turkey during1965-2018 and show that the two approaches provide unifying results.

Parametric and non-parametric estimation of extreme earthquake event: the joint tail inference for mainshocks and aftershocks