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We estimate the number of fatal victims of the Peruvian internal armedconflict between 1980-2000 using stratified seven-list Capture-Recapturemethods based on Dirichlet process mixtures, which we extend to accommodateincomplete stratification information. We use matched data from six sources,originally analyzed by the Peruvian Truth and Reconciliation Commission in2003, together with a new large dataset, originally published in 2006 by thePeruvian government. We deal with missing stratification labels by developing ageneral framework and estimation methods based on MCMC sampling for jointlyfitting generic Bayesian Capture-Recapture models and the missing labels.Through a detailed exploration driven by domain-knowledge, modeling andrefining, with special precautions to avoid cherry-picking of results, wearrive to a conservative posterior estimate of 58,234 (CI95% = [56,741,61,289]), and a more liberal estimate of 65,958 (CI95% = [61,462, 75,387])fatal victims. We also determine that the Shining Path guerrillas killed morepeople than the Peruvian armed forces. We additionally explore and discussestimates based on log-linear modeling and multiple-imputation. We finish bydiscussing several lessons learned about the use of Capture-Recapture methodsfor estimating casualties in conflicts.

Estimating the Number of Fatal Victims of the Peruvian Internal Armed  Conflict, 1980-2000: an application of modern multi-list Capture-Recapture  techniques