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Windstorms are a primary natural hazard affecting Europe that are commonlylinked to substantial property and infrastructural damage and are responsiblefor the largest spatially aggregated financial losses. Such extreme winds aretypically generated by extratropical cyclone systems originating in the NorthAtlantic and passing over Europe. Previous statistical studies tend to modelextreme winds at a given set of sites, corresponding to inference in a Eulerianframework. Such inference cannot incorporate knowledge of the life cycle andprogression of extratropical cyclones across the region and is forced to makerestrictive assumptions about the extremal dependence structure. We take anentirely different approach which overcomes these limitations by working in aLagrangian framework. Specifically, we model the development of windstorms overtime, preserving the physical characteristics linking the windstorm and thecyclone track, the path of local vorticity maxima, and make a key finding thatthe spatial extent of extratropical windstorms becomes more localised as itsmagnitude increases irrespective of the location of the storm track. Our modelallows simulation of synthetic windstorm events to derive the jointdistributional features over any set of sites giving physically consistentextrapolations to rarer events. From such simulations improved estimates ofthis hazard can be achieved both in terms of intensity and area affected.

Modelling the spatial extent and severity of extreme European windstorms