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Because the Impact Factor (IF) is an average quantity and most journals aresmall, IFs are volatile. We study how a single paper affects the IF using datafrom 11639 journals in the 2017 Journal Citation Reports. We define asvolatility the IF gain (or loss) caused by a single paper, and this isinversely proportional to journal size. We find high volatilities for hundredsof journals annually due to their top-cited paper: whether it is a highly-citedpaper in a small journal, or a moderately (or even low) cited paper in a smalland low-cited journal. For example, 1218 journals had their most cited paperboost their IF by more than 20%, while for 231 journals the boost exceeded 50%.We find that small journals are rewarded much more than large journals forpublishing a highly-cited paper, and are also penalized more for publishing alow-cited paper, especially if they have a high IF. This produces a strongincentive for prestigious, high-IF journals to stay small, to remaincompetitive in IF rankings. We discuss the implications for breakthrough papersto appear in prestigious journals. We also question the practice of rankingjournals by IF given this uneven reward mechanism.

How a Single Paper Affects the Impact Factor: Implications for Scholarly Publishing