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Using a refined setup process, we simulated the propagation of six observedCoronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) with the 2012Block-Adaptive-Tree-Solarwind-Roe-Upwind-Scheme (BATS-R-US) code from the Sunto the Earth or STEREO A and compared the outputs with observations. A linearrelation between the average CME speed below 6 solar radii and the flux ropecurrent is demonstrated and used to tune the simulations. The simulationscorrectly predict if and when an observable CME shock reaches one astronomicalunit (AU). The arrival time predictions of the CME shocks at 1 AU have anaccuracy of 0.9 $\pm$ 1.9 hours. The simulated initial CME speeds and averageaccelerations are close to the model and data of Gopalswamy et al., 2000. Theapproach shows promise for predicting the sense of the predominantshock-associated change in the magnetic field component $B_z$. However, themagnetic fields and plasma conditions in the solar wind and CME are notpredicted well quantitatively.

Hit or Miss, Arrival Time, and $B_z$ Orientation Predictions of BATS-R-US CME Simulations at 1 AU