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Extratropical cyclones are large-scale weather systems which are often thesource of extreme weather events in Northern Europe, often leading to massinfrastructural damage and casualties. Such systems create a local vorticitymaxima which tracks across the Atlantic Ocean and from which can be determineda climatology for the region. While there have been considerable advances indeveloping algorithms for extracting the track and evolution of cyclones fromreanalysis datasets, the data record is relatively short. This justifies theneed for a statistical model to represent the more extreme characteristics ofthese weather systems, specifically their intensity and the spatial variabilityin their tracks. This paper presents a novel simulation-based approach tomodelling the lifecycle of extratropical cyclones in terms of both their tracksand vorticity, incorporating various aspects of cyclone evolution and movement.By drawing on methods from extreme value analysis, we can simulate more extremestorms than those observed, representing a useful tool for practitionersconcerned with risk assessment with regard to these weather systems.

A stochastic model for the lifecycle and track of extreme extratropical cyclones in the North Atlantic