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In this research paper, I have performed time series analysis and forecastedthe monthly value of housing starts for the year 2019 using several econometricmethods - ARIMA(X), VARX, (G)ARCH and machine learning algorithms - artificialneural networks, ridge regression, K-Nearest Neighbors, and support vectorregression, and created an ensemble model. The ensemble model stacks thepredictions from various individual models, and gives a weighted average of allpredictions. The analyses suggest that the ensemble model has performed thebest among all the models as the prediction errors are the lowest, while theeconometric models have higher error rates.

Time Series Analysis and Forecasting of the US Housing Starts using Econometric and Machine Learning Model