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We compare federal election results for each state versus the USA in everysecond year from 1992 to 2018, to model partisan lean of each state and itsdependence on the nationwide popular vote. For each state, we model both itscurrent partisan lean and its rate of change, as well as sensitivity of stateresults with respect to the nationwide popular vote, using Bayesian linearregression. We apply this to simulate the Electoral College outcome in 2020,given even (equal) nationwide popular vote, as well as 2016, 2008, and 2004nationwide popular vote. We backtest 2012 and 2016 elections given actualpopular vote. Taking equal popular vote for two major parties, we prove thatthe Electoral College is biased towards Republicans.

Partisan Lean of States: Electoral College and Popular Vote