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Several approaches to causal inference from observational studies have beenproposed. Since the proposal of Rubin (1974) many works have developed acounterfactual approach to causality, statistically formalized by potentialoutcomes. Pearl (2000) has put forward a theory of structural causal modelswhich gives an important role to graphical models and do not necessarily usepotential outcomes. On the other hand, several authors have developed adynamical approach in line with Granger (1969). We analyze prospective andretrospective causal questions and their different modalities. Following Dawid(2000) we develop criticisms about the potential outcome approach and we showthat causal effects can be estimated without potential outcomes: in particulardirect computation of the marginal effect can be done by a change ofprobability measure. Finally, we highlight the need to adopt a dynamic approachto causality through two examples, "truncation by death" and the "obesityparadox".

Causality without potential outcomes and the dynamic approach