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African Swine Fever (ASF) is viral infection which causes acute disease indomestic pigs and wild boar. Although the virus does not cause disease inhumans, the impact it has on the economy, especially through trade and farming,is substantial. Recent rapid propagation of the (ASF) from East to West ofEurope encouraged us to prepare risk assessment for Poland. The early growthestimation can be easily done by matching incidence trajectory to theexponential function, resulting in the approximation of the force of infection.With these calculations the basic reproduction rate of the epidemic, theeffective outbreaks detection and elimination times could be estimated. Inregression mode, 380 Polish counties (poviats) have been analysed, where 18(located in Northeast Poland) have been affected (until August 2017) forspatial propagation (risk assessment for future). Mathematical model has beenapplied by taking into account: swine amount significance, disease vectors(wild boards) significance. We use pseudogravitational models of short andlongrange interactions referring to the socio-migratory behavior of wild boarsand the pork production chain significance. Spatial modeling in a certain rangeof parameters proves the existence of a natural protective barrier withinboarders of the Congress Poland. The spread of the disease to the GreaterPoland should result in the accelerated outbreak of ASF production chain. Inthe preliminary setup, we perform regression analysis, network outbreakinvestigation, early epidemic growth estimation and simulate landscape-basedpropagation.

Modeling the ASF (African Swine Fever) spread till summer 2017 and risk assessment for Poland