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We have studied the impact of incoming preparation and demographic variableson student performance on the final exam in physics 1, the standardintroductory, calculus-based mechanics course This was done at three differentinstitutions using multivariable regression analysis to determine the extent towhich exam scores can be predicted by a variety of variables that are availableto most faculty and departments. We have found that the results aresurprisingly consistent across the institutions, with the only two variablesthat have predictive power being math SAT/ACT scores and concept inventorypre-scores. The importance of both variables is comparable and fairly similaracross the institutions. They explain 20 - 30 percent of the variation instudents' performance on the final exam. Most notably, the demographicvariables (gender, under-represented minority, first generation to attendcollege) are not significant. In all cases, although there appear to be gaps inexam performance if one considers only the demographic variable, once these twoproxies of incoming preparation are included in the model, there is no longer ademographic gap. There is only a preparation gap that applies equally acrossthe entire student population. This work shows that to properly understanddifferences in student performance across a diverse population, and hence todesign more effective instruction, it is important to do statistical analysesthat take multiple variables into account. It also illustrates the importanceof having measures that are sensitive to both subject specific and more generalpreparation. The results suggest that better matching of the course design andteaching to the incoming student preparation will likely be the most effectiveway to eliminate observed performance gaps across demographic groups while alsoimproving the success of all students.

The impact of incoming preparation and demographics on performance in Physics I: a multi-institution comparison