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In this work, we study the impact of non-Gaussian alpha-stable Levy motion ontransitions between metastable equilibrium states (or attractors) in astochastic Stommel two-box model for thermohaline circulation (THC). Bymaximizing the probability density of the solution process associated with anonlocal Fokker-Planck equation, we compute maximal likely pathways andidentify corresponding maximal likely stable equilibrium states. Our numericalresults indicate weakened THC may be induced by perturbation with very smallnoise intensity in a certain range of stability index. Moreover, larger noiseintensity and larger stability index induce weakened THC within shorterbifurcation time.

Transitions between Metastable States in a Simplified Model for the Thermohaline Circulation under Random Fluctuations