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Discoveries come through exclusions, confirmations or revolutionary findingswith respect to a theory canon populated by the Standard Model (SM) and beyondthe SM (BSM) theories. Guaranteed discoveries are accomplished only throughpursuit of BSM exclusion/confirmation, and thus require investment in thecontinual formation and analysis of a vibrant theory canon combined withinvestment in experiment with demonstrated capacity to make BSMexclusions/confirmations. Risks develop when steering away from BSM-orientedwork toward its methodological rival, "signalism," which seeks to realize SMfalsification or revolutionary discoveries outside the context of any BSMrationale. It is argued that such an approach leads to inscrutable exertionsthat reduce prospects for all discovery. The concepts are applied to theEuropean Strategy Update, which seeks to identify future investments inforefront experiment that bring a balance of guaranteed and prospective value.

Discovery goals and opportunities in high energy physics: a defense of BSM-oriented exploration over signalism