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We introduce an agent-based model describing asusceptible-infectious-susceptible (SIS) system of humans and mosquitoes topredict malaria epidemiological scenarios in realistic biological conditions.Emphasis is given to the transition from endemic behavior to eradication ofmalaria transmission induced by combined drug therapies acting on both thegametocytemia reduction and on the selective mosquito mortality during parasitedevelopment in the mosquito. Our mathematical framework enables to uncover thecritical values of the parameters characterizing the effect of each drugtherapy. Moreover, our results provide quantitative evidence of what isempirically known: interventions combining gametocytemia reduction through theuse of gametocidal drugs, with the selective action of ivermectin duringparasite development in the mosquito, may actively promote disease eradicationin the long run. In the agent model, the main properties of human-mosquitointeractions are implemented as parameters and the model is validated bycomparing simulations with real data of malaria incidence collected in theendemic malaria region of Chimoio in Mozambique. Finally, we discuss ourfindings in light of current drug administration strategies for malariaprevention, that may interfere with human-to-mosquito transmission process.

Transition from endemic behavior to eradication of malaria due to combined drug therapies: an agent-model approach