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We propose a counterfactual Kaplan-Meier estimator that incorporatesexogenous covariates and unobserved heterogeneity of unrestricteddimensionality in duration models with random censoring. Under some regularityconditions, we establish the joint weak convergence of the proposedcounterfactual estimator and the unconditional Kaplan-Meier (1958) estimator.Applying the functional delta method, we make inference on the cumulativehazard policy effect, that is, the change of duration dependence in response toa counterfactual policy. We also evaluate the finite sample performance of theproposed counterfactual estimation method in a Monte Carlo study.

Counterfactual Inference in Duration Models with Random Censoring