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Thermoregulation in honey bee colonies during winter is thought to beself-organised. We added mortality of individual honey bees to an existingmodel of thermoregulation to account for elevated losses of bees that arereported worldwide. The aim of analysis is to obtain a better fundamentalunderstanding of the consequences of individual mortality during winter. Thismodel resembles the well-known Keller-Segel model. In contrast to the oftenstudied Keller-Segel models, our model includes a chemotactic coefficient ofwhich the sign can change as honey bees have a preferred temperature: when thelocal temperature is too low, they move towards higher temperatures, whereasthe opposite is true for too high temperatures. Our study shows that we candistinguish two states of the colony: one in which the colony size is above acertain critical number of bees in which the bees can keep the core temperatureof the colony above the threshold temperature, and one in which the coretemperature drops below the critical threshold and the mortality of the beesincreases dramatically, leading to a sudden death of the colony. This modelbehaviour may explain the globally observed honey bee colony losses duringwinter.

Modelling honey bee colonies in winter using a Keller-Segel model with a sign-changing chemotactic coefficient