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Invasive alien species are a growing threat for environment and health. Theyalso have a major economic impact, as they can damage many infrastructures. TheJapanese knotweed (Fallopia japonica), present in North America, Northern andCentral Europe as well as in Australia and New Zealand, is listed by the WorldConservation Union as one of the world's worst invasive species. So far, mostmodels have dealt with how the invasion spreads without management. This paperaims at providing a model able to study and predict the dynamics of a stand ofJapanese knotweed taking into account mowing as a management technique. Themodel we propose is stochastic and individual-based, which allows us takinginto account the behaviour of individuals depending on their size and location,as well as individual stochasticity. We set plant dynamics parameters thanks toa calibration with field data, and study the influence of the initialpopulation size, the mean number of mowing events a year and the managementproject duration on mean area and mean number of crowns of stands. Inparticular, our results provide the sets of parameters for which it is possibleto obtain the stand eradication, and the minimal duration of the managementproject necessary to achieve this latter.

A stochastic individual based model for the growth of a stand of Japanese knotweed including mowing as a management technique