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This paper provides a description of the approach and methodology I used inwinning the European Union Big Data Technologies Horizon Prize on data-drivenprediction of electricity grid traffic. The methodology relies on identifyingtypical short-term recurrent fluctuations, which is subsequently refinedthrough a regression-of-fluctuations approach. The key points and strategicconsiderations that led to selecting or discarding different methodologicalaspects are also discussed. The criteria include adaptability to changingconditions, reliability with outliers and missing data, robustness to noise,and efficiency in implementation.

Winning the Big Data Technologies Horizon Prize: Fast and reliable  forecasting of electricity grid traffic by identification of recurrent  fluctuations