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Agricultural production is affected by climate extremes, which are increasingbecause of global warming. This motivates the need of a proper evaluation ofthe agricultural production systems resilience to enhance food security, marketstability, and the general ability of society to cope with the effects ofclimate change. Resilience is generally assessed through holistic approachesinvolving a large number of indicators for the environmental, social andeconomic factors that influence food availability, access and utilization.Here, we investigate the problem of measuring resilience in a simplifiedframework, focusing on the crop production component of the agriculturalsystem. For an idealized production system composed of a single crop, using theoriginal definition of resilience, we identify the best combination of the meanand the variance of annual crop production data to estimate crop resiliencei.e. the crop resilience indicator. Through numerical experiments conductedwith a conceptual crop model, we show the general properties of this indicatorapplied to production systems for different levels of adaptation to climatevariability and in case of increasing frequencies of extreme events. Finally,we discuss the applicability of the proposed approach to real agriculturalproduction systems and the expected effects of crop diversity on the resilienceof crop production systems, following directly from the mathematical definitionof the crop resilience indicator.

Estimating resilience of annual crop production systems: theory and limitations