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This paper takes a different approach to evaluating face-offs in ice hockey.Instead of looking at win percentages, the de facto measure of successfulface-off takers for decades, focuses on the game events following the face-offand how directionality, clean wins, and player handedness play a significantrole in creating value. This will demonstrate how not all face-off wins aremade equal: some players consistently create post-face-off value through cleanwins and by directing the puck to high-value areas of the ice. As a result, wepropose an expected events face-off model as well as a wins above expectedmodel that take into account the value added on a face-off by targeting thepuck to specific areas on the ice in various contexts, as well as the impactthis has on subsequent game events.

Winning Is Not Everything: A contextual analysis of hockey face-offs