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Turkey hosts almost 3.5M refugees and has to face a humanitarian emergency ofunprecedented levels. We use mobile phone data to map the mobility patterns ofboth Turkish and Syrian refugees, and use these patterns to build data-drivencomputational models for quantifying the risk of epidemics spreading formeasles -- a disease having a satisfactory immunization coverage in Turkey butnot in Syria, due to the recent civil war -- while accounting for hypotheticalpolicies to integrate the refugees with the Turkish population. Our resultsprovide quantitative evidence that policies to enhance social integrationbetween refugees and the hosting population would reduce the transmissionpotential of measles by almost 50%, preventing the onset of widespread largeepidemics in the country. Our results suggest that social segregation does nothamper but rather boosts potential outbreaks of measles to a greater extent inSyrian refugees but also in Turkish citizens, although to a lesser extent. Thisis due to the fact that the high immunization coverage of Turkish citizens canshield Syrian refugees from getting exposed to the infection and this in turnreduces potential sources of infection and spillover of cases among Turkishcitizens as well, in a virtuous cycle reminiscent of herd immunity.

Reducing measles risk in Turkey through social integration of Syrian refugees