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Results of direct numerical simulations have been used to show that intensivethermal convection in a horizontal layer and on a hemisphere can be describedby the distributed chaos approach. The vorticity and helicity dominateddistributed chaos were considered for this purpose. Results of numericalsimulations of the Weather Research and Forecast Model (with the moistconvection and with the Coriolis effect) and of the Coupled Ocean-AtmosphereMesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) were also analysed to demonstrateapplicability of this approach to the atmospheric processes. The ensembleforecasts of the real winter storms in the East Coast and Pacific Northwest aswell as results of a simulation experiment with the multiscale storm-scaleensemble forecasts for eleven cases of mid-latitude convection in the centralU.S. have been also discussed in this context.

Thermal convection, ensemble weather forecasting and distributed chaos