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Using the trends of estimated abilities in terms of item response theory foronline testing, we can predict the success/failure status for the finalexamination to each student at early stages in courses. In prediction, weapplied the newly developed nearest neighbor method for determining thesimilarity of learning skill in the trends of estimated abilities, resulting abetter prediction accuracy for success or failure. This paper shows that theuse of the learning analytics incorporating the trends for abilities iseffective. ROC curve and recall precision curve are informative to assist theproposed method.

Prediction of Success or Failure for Final Examination using Nearest Neighbor Method to the Trend of Weekly Online Testing