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Simulating the population dynamics of a stage-structured population requiresthe knowledge of the biodemographic functions characterizing the species,namely development, mortality and fecundity. In general, development andfecundity can satisfactorily be estimated starting from literature data.Unfortunately, this is often not the case of the mortality function, because ofthe lack of experimental data. To overcome this problem we estimate themortality rate function from field data on the abundance of the species. Themortality is expressed as a linear combination of cubic splines and theestimation method allows to determine its coefficients taking into account theobservations measurement error. Moreover, the variability in the estimate isquantified by means of the confidence bands for both mortality and dynamics.The presented method allows to obtain a more flexible shape for the mortalityrate functions compared with previous methods applied to the same pest. Themethod is applied to the case of Lobesia botrana, the main pest in the Europeanvineyards, with abundance data collected in a location in the North of Italyfor five consecutive years. Data collected over three years are used toestimate the mortality and to analyze the variability in the estimate and itseffects on the population dynamics. Other two datasets are used to validate themodel simulating the dynamics using the estimated mortality.

Estimation of the mortality rate functions from time series field data in a stage-structured demographic model for Lobesia botrana