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There has been a significant increase in the number of diagnostic andprognostic models published in the last decade. Testing such models in anindependent, external validation cohort gives some assurance the model willtransfer to a naturalistic, healthcare setting. Of 2,147 published models inthe PubMed database, we found just 120 included some kind of separate externalvalidation cohort. Of these studies not all were sufficiently well documentedto allow a judgement about whether that model was likely to transfer to othercentres, with other patients, treated by other clinicians, using data scored oranalysed by other laboratories. We offer a solution to better characterizingthe validation cohort and identify the key steps on the translational pathwayfor diagnostic and prognostic models.

Building Reality Checks into the Translational Pathway for Diagnostic and Prognostic Models