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We examine the household-specific effects of the introduction of Time-of-Use(TOU) electricity pricing schemes. Using a causal forest (Athey and Imbens,2016; Wager and Athey, 2018; Athey et al., 2019), we consider the associationbetween past consumption and survey variables, and the effect of TOU pricing onhousehold electricity demand. We describe the heterogeneity in householdvariables across quartiles of estimated demand response and utilise variableimportance measures.  Household-specific estimates produced by a causal forest exhibit reasonableassociations with covariates. For example, households that are younger, moreeducated, and that consume more electricity, are predicted to respond more to anew pricing scheme. In addition, variable importance measures suggest that someaspects of past consumption information may be more useful than surveyinformation in producing these estimates.

Causal Tree Estimation of Heterogeneous Household Response to Time-Of-Use Electricity Pricing Schemes