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The purpose of these notes is to present an assessment of the probability ofa candidate be elected in a two-round presidential election. In the firstround, all candidates can be voted on. If one of them has more than 50% of thevote (s)he is elected and there is no second round. If none of the candidatesobtain more than 50% of the votes, then the top two candidates will be selectedfor a second round. In this second round, the most voted candidate is elected.This is the scenario of the Brazilian elections that are taking place at themoment. We are calculating the odds associated with the 2018 presidentialelections in Brazil. The first round is on October 7, and the second round ison October 28, 2018.

Odds for the Brazilian 2018 president elections: An application of Bayesian statistics in contingency tables