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We propose a microscopic model to describe how individual opinions sharedbetween interacting agents initiate excessive collective expectations about anew idea or an innovation, followed by a swift collapse towards a dramaticcollective disillusionment. The basic assumption which underlies the dynamicsis that the information gathering process is not instantaneous but requiresmaturation. Agents steadily refine and update their personal opinion via arecurrent consultation of a public pool which stores information tokens (ITs).The expectation for the innovative idea is monitored in real-time by countingthe number of stored ITs. The flow dynamics of ITs is assimilated to a singlenode queuing system (QS) with feedback loop. It incorporates the informationpool (the waiting room), an IT inflow, and a service outflow that stylizes theinformation gathering process. Contrary to basic queuing theory, here the ITsroaming the QS are endowed with time-dependent internal variables. Thisadditional dynamic information is used to construct the information maturationprocess. Such a maturation of the information introduces response delays intothe dynamics, which ultimately generates the collective disillusionment trough.We illustrate the introduced generic modeling framework by considering indetails the hype cycle dynamics, a key managerial topic when dealing withdiffusion of innovation. In a second part of the paper, we introduce a stylizedframework to detect, as soon as possible, the onset of the collectivedisillusionment phase, while minimizing the frequency of false alarms.

Opinion formation dynamics -- Swift collective disillusionment triggered by unmet expectations