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FIFA World Cup is one of the most watched sporting event in the world and itspopularity continue to increase. While currently 32 teams participate in thisevent, starting with 2026 the number of participants will increase to 48. As aresult, FIFA proposed a major format change, the groups of 4 teams will bereplaced by groups of 3 teams, with the first two teams to qualify to thesecond round. In this paper, we discuss the possibility of matches with limitedimportance (called non-competitive) for final group standing for both 4-teamand 3-team groups and we introduce our definitions of collusion and dead rubbergames. Next, we discuss scenarios in both 4-team and 3-team group formats thatlead to such matches. Finally, we make an analysis of all group stage matchesfrom last six World Cup editions (1998 to 2018), and we predict the most likelynumber of collusions and dead rubber games for the new format of the World Cup.During our analysis we consider a variation of the proposed 3-group format inwhich the order of matches for each group is predetermined. Our analysis showthat this variation has the potential of reducing significantly the number ofboth collusion and dead rubber matches thus becoming an interesting option tobe considered for adoption by FIFA. In conclusion, we recommend FIFA toimplement a predefined order of group matches prior to the drawing. The seededteam should play the first match with the team that is second best (accordingto the drawing time FIFA Coca-Cola rankings), as well as the second match fromthe group.

FIFA Does it Right: 2026 FIFA World Cup Does not Increase the Number of Non-Competitive Matches