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During the 1990s, while exploring the impact of the collapse of the SovietUnion on developments in future warfare, a number of authors offered forecastsof military technology appearing by the year 2020. This paper offers aquantitative assessment of the accuracy of this group of forecasts. The overallaccuracy - by several measures - was assessed as quite high, thereby pointingto the potential value of such forecasts in managing investments in long-termresearch and development. Major differences in accuracy, with strongstatistical significance, were found between forecasts pertaining primarily toinformation acquisition and processing technologies, as opposed to technologiesthat aim primarily at physical effects. This paper also proposes severalrecommendations regarding methodological aspects of forecast accuracyassessments. Although the assessments were restricted to information availablein open literature, the expert assessors did not find this constraint asignificant detriment to the assessment process.

Long-Term Forecasts of Military Technologies for a 20-30 Year Horizon: An Empirical Assessment of Accuracy