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As the penetration of wind generation increases, the uncertainty it bringshas imposed great challenges to power system operation. To cope with thechallenges, tremendous research work has been conducted, among which twoaspects are of most importance, i.e. making immune operation strategies andaccessing the power system's capability to accommodate the variable energy.Driven and inspired by the latter problem, this paper will discuss the powersystem's capability to accommodate variable wind generation in a probabilitysense. Wind generation, along with its uncertainty is illustrated by apolyhedron, which contains prediction, risk and uncertainty information. Then,a three-level optimization problem is presented to estimate the lowerprobability bound of power system's capability to fully accommodate windgeneration. After reformulating the inner \emph{max-min} problem, orfeasibility check problem, into its equivalent mixed-integer linear program(MILP) form, the bisection algorithm is presented to solve this challengingproblem. Modified IEEE systems are adopted to show the effectiveness of theproposed method.

Estimating Lower Probability Bound of Power System's Capability to Fully Accommodate Variable Wind Generation