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Methods for predicting the likely upper economic limit for the wind fleet inthe United Kingdom should be simple to use whilst being able to cope withevolving technologies, costs and grid management strategies. This paper presenttwo such models, both of which use data on historical wind patterns but applydifferent approaches to estimating the extent of wind shedding as a function ofthe size of the wind fleet. It is clear from the models that as the wind fleetincreases in size, wind shedding will progressively increase, and as a resultthe overall economic efficiency of the wind fleet will be reduced. The modelsprovide almost identical predictions of the efficiency loss and suggest thatthe future upper economic limit of the wind fleet will be mainly determined bythe wind fleet Headroom, a concept described in some detail in the paper. Theresults, which should have general applicability, are presented in graphicalform, and should obviate the need for further modelling using the primary data.The paper also discusses the effectiveness of the wind fleet in decarbonisingthe grid, and the growing competition between wind and solar fleets as sourcesof electrical energy for the United Kingdom.

Two Different Methods for Modelling the Likely Upper Economic Limit of the Future United Kingdom Wind Fleet