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Battery electric vehicles (BEVs) are now clearly a promising candidate inaddressing the environmental problems associated with conventional internalcombustion engine vehicles (ICEVs). However, BEVs, unlike ICEVs, are still notwidely accepted in the automobile market but continuing technological changecould overcome this barrier. The aim of this study is to assess and forecastwhether and when design changes and technological improvements related to majorchallenges in driving range and battery cost will make the user value of BEVsgreater than the user value of ICEVs. Specifically, we estimate the relativeuser value of BEVs and ICEVs resulting after design modifications to achievedifferent driving ranges by considering the engineering trade-offs based on avehicle simulation. Then, we analyze when the relative user value of BEVs isexpected to exceed ICEVs as the energy density and cost of batteries improvebecause of ongoing technological change. Our analysis demonstrates that therelative value of BEVs is lower than that of ICEVs because BEVs have highbattery cost and high cost of time spent recharging despite high torque, highfuel efficiency, and low fuel cost. Moreover, we found the relative valuedifferences between BEVs and ICEVs are found to be less in high performancelarge cars than in low performance compact cars because BEVs can achieve highacceleration performance more easily than ICEVs. In addition, this studypredicts that in approximately 2050, high performance large BEVs could havehigher relative value than high performance large ICEVs because oftechnological improvements in batteries; however low performance compact BEVsare still very likely to have significantly lower user value than comparableICEVs until well beyond 2050.

Forecasting the value of battery electric vehicles compared to internal  combustion engine vehicles: the influence of driving range and battery  technology