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The question of how people vote strategically under uncertainty has attractedmuch attention in several disciplines. Theoretical decision models have beenproposed which vary in their assumptions on the sophistication of the votersand on the information made available to them about others' preferences andtheir voting behavior. This work focuses on modeling strategic voting behaviorunder poll information. It proposes a new heuristic for voting behavior thatweighs the success of each candidate according to the poll score with theutility of the candidate given the voters' preferences. The model weights canbe tuned individually for each voter. We compared this model with otherrelevant voting models from the literature on data obtained from a recentlyreleased large scale study. We show that the new heuristic outperforms allother tested models. The prediction errors of the model can be partly explaineddue to inconsistent voters that vote for (weakly) dominated candidates.

Predicting Strategic Voting Behavior with Poll Information