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African dust exhibits strong variability on a range of time scales. Here weshow that the interhemispheric contrast in Atlantic SST (ICAS) drives Africandust variability on interannual, multidecadal, and millennial timescales, and astrong anthropogenic decline of African dust in the future can be expected dueto the projected increase of the ICAS. During the recent past, the ICAS isfound to significantly correlate with various dust observations and proxiesthat extend as far back as 1851. Physically, positive ICAS anomalies inducelarge-scale circulation changes that push the Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ) northward and decrease surface wind speed over African dust sourceregions, which reduces dust emission and transport to the tropical Atlantic.The ICAS-ITCZ-dust relationship also finds robust support from paleo-climateobservations that span the last 17,000 years. The ICAS drive of African dustvariability is consistent with documented relationships between dust activityand Sahel precipitation6, the North Atlantic Oscillation7, and time series of asurface wind speed pattern over Northern Africa8, and offers a unifiedframework to understand them. The ICAS-dust connection implies that humanactivities that change ICAS through emitting greenhouse gases and pollutionshave affected and will continue to affect African dust. Climate models projectthat anthropogenic increase of the ICAS can push the ICAS value to surpass thehighest level attained during the Holocene by the end of this century anddecrease African dust activity by as much as 60% off its current level, whichhas broad consequences for aspects of the climate in the North Atlantic regionand beyond.

Future Decline of African Dust: Insights from the Recent Past and Paleo-records