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The growing concentrations of the greenhouse gases CO2, CH4 and N2O (GHG) inthe atmosphere are often considered as the dominant cause for the globalwarming during the past decades. The reported temperature data however do notdisplay a simple correlation with the concentration changes since 1880 so thatother reasons are to be considered to contribute notably. An important featurein this context is the shrinking of the polar ice caps observed in recentyears. We have studied the direct effect of the loss of global sea ice since1955 on the mean global temperature estimating the corresponding decrease ofthe terrestrial albedo. Using a simple 1-dimensional model the global warmingof the surface is computed that is generated by the increase of GHG and thealbedo change. A modest effect by the GHG of 0.08 K is calculated for theperiod 1880 to 1955 with a further increase by 0.18K for 1955 to 2015. A largercontribution of 0.55 +/-0.05 K is estimated for the melting of polar sea ice(MSI) in the latter period, i.e. it notably exceeds that of the GHG and may becompared with the observed global temperature rise of 1.0 +/- 0.1 K during thepast 60 years. Our data also suggest a delayed response of the mean globaltemperature to the loss of sea ice with a time constant of approximately 20years. The validity of the theoretical model and the interrelation betweenGHG-warming and MSI-effect are discussed.

Estimate of the Globing Warming Caused by the Retreat of Polar Sea Ice