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Predicting how changes to the urban environment will affect town centrevitality, mediated as pedestrian flows, is important for environmental, socialand economic sustainability. This study is a longitudinal investigation ofbefore and after urban environmental change in a town centre and itsassociation with vitality. The case study baseline is Cardiff town centre in2007, prior and after major changes instigated by re-configuring Cardiff publicand quasi-public street layout due to implementation of the St David's Phase 2retail development.  We present a Multivariate Hybrid Spatial Network Analysis (MHSpNA) model,which bridges the gap between existing Spatial Network Analysis models and fourstage modelling techniques. Multiple theoretical flows are computed based onretail floor area (everywhere to shops, shop to shop, stations to shops andparking to shops). The calibration process determines a suitable balance ofthese to best match observed pedestrian flows, using generalizedcross-validation to prevent overfit. Validation shows that the 2007 modelsuccessfully predicts vitality as pedestrian flows measured in 2010 and 2011.This is the first time, to our knowledge, that a vitality-pedestrian flow modelhas been evaluated for its ability to forecast town centre vitality changesover time.

Testing the ability of Multivariate Hybrid Spatial Network Analysis to predict the effect of a major urban redevelopment on pedestrian flows