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China made the announement to create the Xiongan New Area in Hebei in April1,2017. Thus a new magacity about 110km south west of Beijing will emerge.Xiongan New Area is of great practial significant and historical significantfor transferring Beijing's non-capital function. Simulating the urban dynamicsin Xiongan New Area can help planners to decide where to build the new urbanand further manage the future urban growth. However, only a little researchfocus on the future urban development in Xiongan New Area. In addition,previous models are unable to simulate the urban dynamics in Xiongan New Area.Because there are no original high density urbna for these models to learn thetransition rules.In this study, we proposed a C-FLUS model to solve suchproblems. This framework was implemented by coupling a modified Cellularautomata(CA). An elaborately designed random planted seeds machanism based onlocal maximums is addressed in the CA model to better simulate the occurrenceof the new urban. Through an analysis of the current driving forces, the C-FLUScan detect the potential start zone and simulate the urban development underdifferent scenarios in Xiongan New Area. Our study shows that the new urban ismost likely to occur in northwest of Xiongxian, and it will rapidly extend toRongcheng and Anxin until almost cover the northern part of Xiongan New Area.Moreover, the method can help planners to evaluate the impact of urbanexpansion in Xiongan New Area.

Simulating the future urban growth in Xiongan New Area: a upcoming big city in China